Mere minutes after the Related Press declared the U.S. presidential election for Donald Trump, Singapore’s prime minister, Lawrence Wong, took to the social media platform X to supply his congratulations.
“I look ahead to taking our partnership to even better heights,” Wong’s official account posted. “We hope to welcome you again to Singapore quickly!”
The previous few years have been good for Singapore, and issues stand to get higher. The island nation occupies a key place within the area, sustaining shut ties to China and the U.S. at the same time as the 2 powers decouple their economies amid rising tensions.
Singapore’s latest development as a monetary middle has typically come on the expense of Hong Kong, its longtime peer and rival that has been pulled nearer to Beijing lately. And the return of Trump to the White Home may tip the scales even additional towards Singapore, because the incoming president threatens to tighten the screws on China.
Trump’s election is a “web constructive for Singapore, web damaging for Hong Kong,” says Devadas Krishnadas, a former Singapore authorities official and CEO of the Future-Strikes Group, a consulting agency. He predicts U.S. funds will shrink back from Hong Kong and its shut hyperlinks to China, and as an alternative proceed their march to Singapore: “Singapore will probably be seen as the one protected place in Asia for U.S. and European capital.”
Overseas capital from all over the world is speeding into Singapore’s monetary establishments, attracted by political stability, a lenient tax regime, and relative neutrality. Property below administration in Singapore rose to $4.1 trillion in 2023, forward of the $3.9 trillion managed in Hong Kong.
Singapore’s race with Hong Kong to be the preeminent monetary middle of Asia is led by its Huge Three banks: DBS Financial institution, United Abroad Financial institution (UOB), and OverseaChinese Banking Corp. (OCBC).
Led by CEO Helen Wong, OCBC—the oldest of the Huge Three—maybe greatest characterizes the nation’s banking sector and greatest reveals how Singapore navigates this new future.
“OCBC is possibly probably the most consultant of the Singapore banking sector,” says Michael Makdad, senior fairness analyst at Morningstar. “DBS is bigger in Larger China, however much less outdoors Singapore, whereas UOB has a bigger presence outdoors Singapore however much less in Larger China. OCBC has each.”
Chinese language capital stays a serious a part of OCBC’s enterprise. Southeast Asia is China’s largest buying and selling accomplice, having changed the EU in 2020. Bilateral commerce between China and Southeast Asian nations reached $912 billion in 2023.
“Singapore will probably be seen as the one protected place in Asia for U.S. and European Capital.”
DEVADAS KRISHNADAS, CEO, Future-Strikes Group — Singapore
However China’s funding in Southeast Asia is altering, says Tommy Xie, OCBC’s chief China economist. “Mining was the biggest sector receiving funding from China round 10 years in the past,” Xie says. “However now the share has actually diminished. Manufacturing is without doubt one of the largest proper now.” And far of the cash is in Singapore, which Xie says accounts for simply over half of the Chinese language cash flowing into the area.
Singapore has additionally develop into a protected haven for Chinese language firms navigating an more and more unfriendly world. The Southeast Asian nation is an effective launching level for Chinese language firms making an attempt to diversify their provide chains all through the area in a “China Plus One” technique. And a few startups, like fast-fashion platform Shein, have quietly established headquarters in Singapore due, no less than partly, to hopes {that a} non Chinese language dwelling base could be extra palatable to Western buyers.
If Singapore goes to surpass Hong Kong as a monetary hub, core to its technique is wealth administration. The federal government provides tax incentives to single-family workplaces that arrange store within the metropolis. As of August, there are actually 1,650 such workplaces receiving these tax breaks, up from 400 on the finish of 2020.
Ore Huiying—Bloomberg/Getty Photos
Wealth administration generated $2.9 billion for OCBC within the first 9 months of the yr. The corporate has designated “Asian wealth” as considered one of its 4 enterprise areas; simply over a 3rd of the financial institution’s earnings is derived from wealth administration. Earlier this yr, Wong pledged to take a position an extra $192 million within the cities of Hong Kong and Macau, and its personal financial institution unveiled a goal to develop Hong Kong belongings below administration by 50% by the tip of 2026.
That could possibly be challenged by the brand new Trump administration. Each the primary Trump administration and the Biden administration imposed sanctions and monetary controls on China—first on particular person firms, then on total sectors. Expanded controls below a brand new Trump White Home will drive Singapore’s banks to cease working with sure prospects and sectors.
OCBC sees the pullback of U.S. banks from Hong Kong as a possibility to win new prospects. Throughout a visit to the Chinese language metropolis earlier this yr, Wong famous that “an increasing number of of the Hong Kong prospects select to speak to us, as an alternative of speaking to their Western counterparts.”
OCBC’s official founding dates to 1932, when three native banks merged amid the Nice Melancholy. The oldest of these predecessor banks dates to 1912, giving OCBC over a century’s price of historical past within the Southeast Asian metropolis.
That very same financial institution, Chinese language Industrial Financial institution, opened a financial institution department in Xiamen—then referred to as Amoy—in China’s Fujian province in 1925. That department survived via the civil struggle and the Communist takeover, giving OCBC virtually a century of uninterrupted operations in China, uncommon for a international financial institution.
For many years, OCBC was the biggest of Singapore’s banks, however it’s since been eclipsed by DBS Financial institution; in the present day DBS holds round $587 billion in complete belongings, in contrast with $448 billion for OCBC.
With $18.4 billion in income in 2023, OCBC ranks No. 12 on Fortune’s inaugural Southeast Asia 500 checklist, which ranks the area’s largest firms by income. (DBS, with $25.6 billion in 2023 income, sits at No. 10, whereas UOB is No. 11 with $19.7 billion.)
OCBC additionally holds a majority stake in Nice Jap, town’s largest life insurance coverage supplier, and provides personal banking via the Financial institution of Singapore, acquired from ING in 2009. In 2014, OCBC additionally snapped up Wing Hold Financial institution, a Hong Kong financial institution, giving it a foothold in each the Chinese language metropolis and the Larger Bay Space, a Chinese language challenge to knit collectively the cities of the Pearl River Delta.
Sixty-two % of OCBC’s income is generated in its dwelling base of Singapore. A lot of its non-Singaporean income comes from two main sources. Southeast Asian markets, primarily Malaysia and Indonesia, contribute 19% of the financial institution’s income; Larger China, a catch-all time period that encapsulates mainland China, Hong Kong, and the island of Taiwan, generates an extra 13%.
Helen Wong took over as OCBC’s CEO in 2021, the primary feminine chief govt within the financial institution’s historical past and the primary lady to guide a Singaporean financial institution. She is No. 17 on the Fortune Most Highly effective Ladies checklist for 2024: the second-highest-ranking govt from Asia, after Luxshare Precision Trade founder Grace Wang. Wong can be on the inaugural Fortune Most Highly effective Individuals checklist, at No. 71.
But Wong’s roots lie in Hong Kong. Born there in 1961, she graduated from St. Paul’s School, one of many metropolis’s most prestigious colleges, then from the College of Hong Kong.
Wong’s first banking job was with OCBC, as a administration trainee, in 1981; she shortly turned the financial institution’s first China desk supervisor. She finally moved to HSBC, beginning a decades-long profession that culminated in changing into the financial institution’s chief govt for Larger China in 2015.
She returned to OCBC 5 years later, becoming a member of as its deputy president and head of world wholesale banking in 2020. A yr later, the board gave her the nod to develop into the subsequent chief govt, particularly pointing to her China expertise.
Hong Kong stays Singapore’s closest competitors. The Chinese language metropolis has struggled lately owing to the aftereffects of its robust COVID-zero coverage, considerations over Beijing’s encroaching jurisdiction, and a sluggish Chinese language economic system.
However Hong Kong officers now assume they’ve turned a nook and are providing new incentives to draw the world’s rich, with a aim of luring 200 extra household workplaces by the tip of 2025. UBS predicts Hong Kong may overtake Switzerland because the world’s largest hub for cross-border finance as early as 2026.
Hong Kong’s IPO pipeline, whereas removed from the highs of just some years in the past, can be exhibiting indicators of a revival as Chinese language firms like equipment producer Midea launch bumper listings within the metropolis.
Singapore’s capital markets, by comparability, are “a whole joke,” says Devadas, the guide. Singapore “shouldn’t be even in the identical ballpark as Hong Kong,” even after the latter’s inventory market took a beating within the wake of the pandemic. Within the first three quarters of the yr, Singapore drew only one IPO; Hong Kong drew 45. Singapore’s authorities has now arrange an official process drive to deal with the issue.
Hong Kong’s recovering inventory market helped town overtake Singapore as Asia’s main monetary middle on a rating from the China Improvement Institute, a China-based assume tank.
But Singapore’s authorities is “unconcerned” about potential competitors from Hong Kong, Devadas says. “They don’t see it as a zero-sum sport.”
“What’s good for Hong Kong is sweet for Singapore,” Devadas says, noting that the issues that help a wholesome Hong Kong economic system—like a wholesome Chinese language economic system—profit Singapore, too.
“However the reverse isn’t essentially true,” he says. Singapore can faucet into different areas way more simply than Hong Kong can, with out the luggage of being tied to China.
OCBC, for its half, isn’t choosing between the 2. “They’re each resilient, worldwide monetary facilities engaging to worldwide buyers and companies,” Wong writes to Fortune. Hong Kong is essential to the financial institution’s China plans; Singapore to its ASEAN growth.
Nonetheless, geopolitics may make life trickier for Singapore, even when Washington doesn’t strain the Southeast Asia nation straight. Trump’s promise to impose broad tariffs on all imports coming into the U.S. may upend the worldwide buying and selling system, hitting a trade-focused economic system like Singapore’s.
However Trump’s election additionally brings alternatives. Larger strain on China will encourage extra Chinese language firms to spend money on Southeast Asia—and supply much more alternatives for Singapore’s banks, like OCBC, to learn from these flows. “With extra Chinese language manufacturing coming [to the region], it should profit a financial institution like us,” Wong advised analysts throughout OCBC’s earnings name on Nov. 8, when the financial institution unveiled document web earnings for the yr up to now.
“Everybody involves Singapore first to start out an organization,” she stated.
This text seems within the December 2024/January 2025: Asia challenge of Fortune with the headline “Shifting fortunes.”
