Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, leaves the U.S. Capitol after a gathering with Republican members of the Senate Banking, Housing and City Affairs Committee on the problem of de-banking on Feb. 13, 2025.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Name, Inc. | Getty Pictures
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon mentioned Monday that markets and central bankers underappreciate the dangers created by file U.S. deficits, tariffs and worldwide tensions.
Dimon, the veteran CEO and chairman of the largest U.S. financial institution by belongings, defined his worldview throughout his financial institution’s annual investor day assembly in New York. He mentioned he believes the dangers of upper inflation and even stagflation aren’t correctly represented by inventory market values, which have staged a comeback from lows in April.
“We have now big deficits; we’ve got what I think about nearly complacent central banks,” Dimon mentioned. “You all suppose they will handle all this. I do not suppose they will,” he mentioned.
“My very own view is folks really feel fairly good as a result of you have not seen efficient tariffs,” Dimon mentioned. “The market got here down 10%, [it’s] again up 10%. That is a unprecedented quantity of complacency.”
Dimon’s feedback comply with Moody’s ranking company downgrading the U.S. credit standing on Friday over issues concerning the authorities’s rising debt burden. Markets have been whipsawed over the previous few months over worries that President Donald Trump’s commerce insurance policies will elevate inflation and gradual the world’s largest economic system.
Dimon mentioned Monday that he believed Wall Avenue earnings estimates for S&P 500 corporations, which have already declined within the first weeks of Trump’s commerce insurance policies, will fall additional as corporations pull or decrease steerage amid the uncertainty.
In six months, these projections will fall to 0% earnings progress after beginning the 12 months at round 12%, Dimon mentioned. If that have been to occur, shares costs will doubtless fall.
“I feel earnings estimates will come down, which implies PE will come down,” Dimon mentioned, referring to the worth to earnings ratio tracked carefully by inventory market analysts.
The chances of stagflation, “which is mainly a recession with inflation,” are roughly double what the market thinks, Dimon added.
Individually, one in all Dimon’s high deputies mentioned company purchasers are nonetheless in “wait-and-see” mode relating to acquisitions and different offers.
Funding banking income is headed for a “mid-teens” proportion decline within the second quarter in contrast with the year-earlier interval, whereas buying and selling income was trending greater by a “mid-to-high” single-digit proportion, mentioned Troy Rohrbaugh, a co-head of the agency’s industrial and funding financial institution.
On the ever-present query of Dimon’s timeline at hand over the CEO reins to one in all his deputies, Dimon mentioned nothing has modified from his steerage final 12 months, when he mentioned he would doubtless stay for lower than 5 extra years.
“If I am right here for 4 extra years, and perhaps two extra” as govt chairman, Dimon mentioned, “that is a very long time.”
Of all the manager displays given Monday, client banking chief Marianne Lake had the longest talking time at a full hour. She is taken into account a high successor candidate, particularly after Chief Working Officer Jennifer Piepszak mentioned she wouldn’t be in search of the highest job.
