The result of the presidential and congressional elections on Nov. 5 might have enormous implications for Ok-12 coverage and funding on the federal degree — and for firms working within the schooling market.
As presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump stand on reverse ends of the political spectrum on a lot of the necessary faculty points which have emerged on the marketing campaign path.
About This Analyst
Reg Leichty is a co-founder of Foresight Regulation + Coverage, an schooling legislation agency in Washington D.C., the place he gives strategic recommendation, authorized counsel, and lobbying help to a broad vary of purchasers, together with schooling companies and establishments, nonprofit organizations, and corporations. Earlier in his profession, he served as telecommunications, know-how, and privateness counsel for former United States Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee Chairman Invoice Nelson of Florida, and as a senior legislative aide to former Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska.
And each chambers in Congress are up for grabs. Within the U.S. Home, the GOP controls 220 seats to Democrats’ 212 seats (with three vacancies), whereas within the Senate, Democrats have a slim majority.
Numerous huge ticket federal gadgets — from funding for key Ok-12 packages corresponding to Title I and Title II to the way forward for the U.S. Division of Training — might be decided by who’s elected in November.
“Each election issues so much for the schooling system,” mentioned Reg Leichty, who advises Ok-12 teams on federal finances and coverage as a founding accomplice at Foresight Regulation + Coverage. “This one is especially consequential on the presidential degree, given among the very divisive rhetoric concerning the public schooling system.”
The specter of cuts to federal funding for education schemes — multibillion-dollar packages that college districts rely closely on for important companies — looms primarily based on the end result of the election.
Many schooling firms depend on faculty techniques having the ability to faucet into these funding streams so as to pay for services and products in curriculum, evaluation, PD, ed tech, social-emotional studying, and plenty of different areas.
The implications from the election additionally lengthen past budgetary points to the chance that the federal authorities might develop into extra concerned in divisive political-culture debates which have roiled many faculty districts.
Regardless of the prevailing divisions, Leichty mentioned he’s considerably optimistic that lawmakers will put apart political variations and work collectively on education-related points, at the least in some areas.
EdWeek Market Transient spoke with Leichty about what schooling firms ought to anticipate from a Harris or Trump administration and shifting majorities in Congress, the prospect of bipartisanship on schooling subjects, and the way this November’s election will form different areas of presidency necessary to the schooling business.
This story is one in a collection that may have a look at the influence of the November elections on the schooling sector.
How do Harris and Trump differ on spending on huge federal packages which are necessary to varsities and schooling firms?
It’s protected to say {that a} Trump administration would possible considerably disinvest in public schooling — and we have now a way of what a Trump schooling finances appears like. For instance, the just lately handed Home Republican finances for the division of ed, the place we noticed a large minimize to Title I, full elimination of ESEA Title II, and flat funding for Title IV.
However, a Harris administration is more likely to proceed to be strongly dedicated to offering assist for Title I for low-income communities, and in among the necessary digital studying packages like Title IV that guarantee all college students have entry to the connectivity and related gadgets and different helps they should study.
Would you anticipate a Trump administration to enact main modifications to the U.S. Division of Training?
Former President Trump himself has kind of plainly mentioned that his focus in schooling will likely be on dismantling the division of ed. We all know he has expressed a need to basically alter the federal position in Ok-12 schooling. I might anticipate, as they did in the course of the Trump administration 4 years in the past, a heavy emphasis on selling entry to non-public schooling, a concentrate on charters and other forms of alternative mechanisms. We’ve seen what their priorities are by means of the final administration and extra just lately out on the marketing campaign path.
And the way do you anticipate a Harris administration would strategy the division of schooling?
We’d possible see Vice President Harris champion lots of the similar sorts of insurance policies that the Biden administration has centered on the final 4 years. We’d see a continued dedication by a Harris group to reasonably priced school entry and completion.
We noticed on the Democratic Conference a spotlight and need to emphasise making certain that college students have the employability expertise they have to be profitable. That features probably a concentrate on strengthening workforce packages, together with the federal apprenticeship packages that target expertise acquisition. And I do assume, as we’ve heard on the marketing campaign path, there could be a common dedication to public schooling, and the children which are served by the general public faculty system.
Do you assume Trump would use his bully pulpit as president to stoke Ok-12 tradition wars over race and gender which have performed out in states and districts?
I do assume that President Trump’s rhetoric has gone all in on inserting schooling on the heart of the tradition wars. If he had been elected, it’s possible that he’ll proceed to concentrate on the themes that divide relatively than carry folks collectively as communities to enhance public schooling. [In 2020, then-President Trump signed an executive order that sought to ban the use of “divisive concepts” in federal contracting. Various of that term were used in many states in efforts to restrict lessons on race and gender.]
There’s additionally the query of how do members on each side of the aisle that need to transfer past a extra divisive debate about public schooling … come collectively to strengthen and higher serve the children in our communities that want essentially the most assist?
It’s most likely going to stay a particularly divided Congress, post-election. How possible is it that bipartisan dealmaking might happen on faculty points?
There are members on each side of the aisle who’re deeply dedicated to public schooling. They worth the general public faculties of their communities. Many, if not most of them, are graduates of public faculties, and so they see the worth of it.
Regardless of a number of robust, decisive conversations on the contrary what we’ve seen is that individuals who assist public schooling on each side of the aisle have come collectively during the last eight years. There’ve been some bumps within the highway, however we’ve seen sturdy continued assist for making certain that our public faculties stay form of anchor components of our communities.
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If Republicans win management of each chambers, what do you assume will occur with Ok-12 funding?
A Republican-controlled Congress is more likely to champion flat, or much less spending in public schooling. I believe the proof of that’s discovered within the U.S. Home Labor, Well being and Human Providers, Training and Associated companies fiscal 12 months 2025 invoice that the committee accepted a couple of weeks in the past, which cuts about $14 billion from Title I. That may be unprecedented.
May these deep cuts to Title I truly occur?
It’s necessary to keep in mind that except Republicans obtain a super-majority within the Senate, that’s except they’ve 60 votes, it can proceed to be troublesome for these sorts of excessive cuts to be adopted. And I believe there are additionally many Republicans within the Senate that disagree with the path that the Home Republicans have taken on schooling spending.
All that’s to say, whereas schooling spending would unlikely be on a trajectory to extend in an all Republican Congress subsequent 12 months, it’s most likely more than likely to be flat funded, as we’ve seen lately simply due to the problem of shifting deep cuts by means of a system that may undoubtedly nonetheless have a considerable variety of Senate Democrats and likewise Senate Republicans who usually are not pleasant to the sorts of deep cuts proposed by the Home Appropriations Committee this 12 months.
What do you anticipate to be a prime precedence for the subsequent Home and Senate schooling committees?
The committees, truthfully in the event that they’re Republican or Democrat managed, will proceed to make progress on the substantive coverage problems with this Congress, which have been about modernizing the Workforce Innovation and Alternative Act, exploring updates to the Nationwide Apprenticeship Act, and seeking to discover a path towards increasing Pell Grant entry for shorter time period, top quality packages.
That’s to say members on each side of the aisle are going to be in search of bipartisan victories in what’s more likely to be a really intently divided Congress. What we’ve discovered this 12 months and final 12 months is that there’s a number of curiosity amongst Republicans and Democrats, and among the many Senate and Home, to attempt to replace the federal workforce packages. They’ve made a number of progress … in direction of that objective.
On what different areas do you see prospects for compromise, and motion?
Considering from an ed-tech perspective, there’s some actually thrilling bipartisan provisions centered on constructing out way more strong knowledge infrastructure designed to advertise larger transparency for college kids and employers within the workforce system. There’s some thrilling issues taking place, even in a troublesome form of political setting.
Are there different areas of Ok-12 that might develop into main points for the subsequent Congress?
Proper after the election there’ll possible even be another points that will come up because of their prominence within the marketing campaign season. So there might be early conversations about proficiency challenges that youngsters have skilled submit pandemic, and the steps which are being taken to get all college students again on monitor.
There might be, within the Senate, an enormous concentrate on literacy because of rating member Cassidy’s [U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La.] curiosity and management in that house. I simply actually anticipate workforce to proceed to be a central focus of whichever celebration is in energy.
Federal stimulus cash is expiring. To what diploma do you anticipate the subsequent Congress to look at the extent to which these had been good investments?
We’ve already seen the Home Training and Workforce Committee maintain these sorts of oversight hearings, which is a central a part of their position as a committee. That’s their job. It’s very attainable that, for instance, if there’s a Republican majority within the Senate that we’d see some hearings about ESSER within the well being committee [U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions] as nicely.
However I believe we’ve had that dialog largely already because of the Republican majority within the Home. So sure, there might be some future hearings about ESSER, however I don’t anticipate it to be the dominant narrative of the subsequent schooling committee’s work in the course of the subsequent Congress.
A Republican-controlled Congress is more likely to champion flat, or much less spending in public schooling.
Exterior of the White Home and Congress, what different methods might the federal election have an effect on ed tech or Ok-12?
There are additionally questions of who the subsequent president will likely be which are related to issues like judicial appointments. For instance, in the previous couple of weeks the Fifth Circuit Court docket of Appeals, which is closely populated by appointees of President Trump, has dominated that the income system for the Common Service Fund, together with E-Charge, is unconstitutional.
And we now have an actual query about the way forward for one of many —if not the largest — ed-tech program within the federal authorities, which is E-Charge. So this isn’t simply concerning the bully pulpit, and it’s not simply concerning the composition of the Congress and the way forward for laws. It’s additionally concerning the appointees of the president and the work they’re doing, and the appointment of judges that may have a dramatically totally different view concerning the constitutional relationship of a few of these packages.
On that word, the president appoints the chair of the Federal Communications Fee, which simply confirmed a fifth member final 12 months after a protracted partisan impasse. How might this election have an effect on the FCC?
If Trump wins, it can convert to a Republican majority and so they may need totally different views on issues like E-Charge, Wi-Fi on buses, or E-Charge assist for cellular hotspots. There are coverage points {that a} Trump FCC might train that may be totally different and even dramatically totally different by way of how the E-Charge is used and what it’s used for and the way it’s funded.
