Irenic takes a place at KBR. Right here’s how the activist could assist enhance shareholder worth

Enterprise: KBR supplies scientific, know-how and engineering options to governments and corporations around the globe. The corporate operates by way of two segments: Authorities Options and Sustainable Expertise Options. Its Authorities Options (GS) enterprise phase supplies full life-cycle assist options to protection, intelligence, house, aviation and different applications and missions for navy and different authorities businesses in the USA, the UK and Australia. Its Sustainable Expertise Options (STS) enterprise phase is anchored by course of know-how that spans ammonia/syngas/fertilizers, chemical/petrochemicals, clear refining and round course of/round economic system options.

Inventory Market Worth: $7.91B ($59.36 per share)

Possession: >1%

Common Price: n/a

Activist Commentary: Irenic Capital was based in October 2021 by Adam Katz, a former portfolio supervisor at Elliott Funding Administration, and Andy Dodge, a former funding companion at Indaba Capital Administration. Irenic invests in public corporations and works collaboratively with agency management. The agency’s activism has to this point centered on strategic activism, recommending spinoffs and gross sales of companies.

On Dec. 19, 2024, Irenic introduced that it plans to push KBR to separate its Sustainable Expertise Options phase from its Authorities Options phase.

KBR is a Houston-based science, know-how and engineering options firm that gives companies to governments and corporations globally. The corporate is split into two segments: Authorities Options (GS) and Sustainable Expertise Options (STS). The GS phase operates as a authorities contractor offering options to protection, intelligence, house, aviation and different missions for militaries and authorities businesses. The STS phase serves each authorities and personal sector shoppers with its in depth portfolio of vitality and sustainability-focused know-how in 4 major verticals: ammonia/syngas, chemical/petrochemicals, clear refining and round course of/round economic system options. Whereas each items have established a robust foothold of their respective finish markets, they’re essentially totally different. Authorities Options is a low-margin mature enterprise, whereas Sustainable Expertise Options is a high-margin rising enterprise. The GS phase has skilled income contraction since FY21 and has adjusted earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation and amortization margins of about 10%. Conversely, STS has grown income by a median of 16.7% yearly since FY21 and has margins of roughly 20%.

In current weeks, authorities contractors, together with KBR, have skilled sector-wide de-rating in response to perceived dangers related to the incoming Trump administration. Buyers have been speculating that the brand new Division of Authorities Effectivity (DOGE), with its mandate to slash federal spending, already pledging to trim $2 trillion from the federal price range, might lead to a fabric decline in authorities contractors’ profitability. Because of this, between Election Day and the report that Irenic had constructed a place within the firm, shares of KBR fell greater than 18%. Nevertheless, KBR could have been unduly punished by DOGE hypothesis. In actuality, KBR seems to be extra insulated from these threats than the market presently perceives. First, whereas the corporate’s GS enterprise does account for 75% of KBR’s income, it contributed lower than half of its working revenue in FY23. As well as, 25% of the GS enterprise is worldwide, primarily within the UK, sheltered from the potential results of DOGE. Wanting on the remaining 75% of that phase within the U.S. market, shut evaluation reveals that solely comparatively small parts of KBR’s companies are anticipated to face any associated estimated price pressures. Whereas a lot is presently unsure, the threats to the GS phase appear, at this second, overblown. Furthermore, the STS phase could also be a beneficiary of the incoming administration’s plans. Underneath the Biden administration, there was a moratorium on export permits for LNG vegetation and a number of other tasks had been placed on maintain. The Trump administration plans to reverse this, which might be a tailwind for KBR as the corporate is well-positioned to win new and present tasks.

Maybe enticed by KBR’s discounted valuation following the current exogenous share worth shock, Irenic has now entered the image. Irenic has collected a place of greater than 1% within the firm and is urging administration to separate its STS phase. These are essentially totally different companies with distinct assist wants, administration necessities and finish markets. Corporations that do not belong collectively ought to be separated for a number of causes: (i) every can appeal to the suitable shareholder base and be awarded the right a number of; (ii) every can dedicate administration focus and compensation to be extra aligned with particular enterprise wants; and (iii) separation can lead to a discount of company overhead prices, producing leaner and extra environment friendly entities. KBR presently trades round 11.5 occasions enterprise worth to the final 12 months’ adjusted EBITDA. Taking a look at peer corporations, these of GS sometimes commerce on this vary, however these most like STS fetch a median a number of of 14-15 occasions EBITDA. Separating the 2 ought to re-rate the STS enterprise creating worth for shareholders earlier than any price financial savings from the separation. By separating the 2 companies, there can be no want for lots of the company prices the corporate presently incurs, which might lead to a $50 million financial savings that goes proper to the underside line. Lastly, forward of any worth creation, the corporate might purchase again shares to create extra shareholder worth. Whereas every worth creation lever by itself may not be extremely compelling, the mix might lead to a 50% enhance in shareholder worth.

Irenic shouldn’t be the one shareholder who thinks a separation is smart; many different shareholders share this view. To place it in a different way: Preserving the 2 corporations collectively is senseless. A number of years in the past, it might’ve been truthful to argue {that a} spin-off of STS wasn’t possible due to the unit’s dimension and youth. In 2021, the phase delivered an working lack of $30 million and within the years after, administration efficiently made this argument saying the phase wanted to be greater to spin off. However STS now generates near $400 million of EBITDA, and it’s time for administration to stroll the stroll. Irenic likes to work behind the scenes with administration and use the ability of persuasion to win the day. We count on the agency will probably be doing that right here proper as much as both the announcement by KBR of a strategic assessment or the corporate’s nomination deadline on Feb. 14, 2025, whichever comes first. If no passable announcement is made by Feb. 14, we might count on Irenic to do one thing that it has by no means needed to do earlier than – launch a proxy combat. Nevertheless, given the shareholder assist for a separation and the truth that there may be an empty board seat (Common Lester L. Lyles not too long ago introduced he’ll retire from the board efficient after the 2025 annual assembly) we don’t count on it is going to come to that. If Irenic is given a seat on the board, it is going to doubtless be for an impartial director with related business expertise versus an Irenic principal.

If KBR does pursue a strategic assessment, we might be remiss if we didn’t point out an identical and related scenario. Elliott Funding Administration has not too long ago advocated for the separation of Honeywell into two corporations, and Honeywell subsequently introduced a strategic assessment of its companies. Honeywell might be a possible strategic acquirer of components or the whole lot of KBR. Irenic’s co-founder, Adam Katz, was a former worker of Elliott Funding Administration, and I’m certain he nonetheless is aware of folks over there.

Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional analysis service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio supervisor of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments.