The Delphic Phenomenon Buying and selling System

Wager you by no means heard of this earlier than.

Contents

The title is in reference to the Oracle of Delphi, a extremely regarded prophet on the Temple of Apollo in Delphi of Historical Greece.

Scot Lowry named his buying and selling system The Delphic Phenomenon for its prophetic potential to foresee worth actions prematurely.

This method is documented in his e book The Magic of Transferring Averages.

To him, the magic shifting averages are the 18-period, the 40-period, and the 4-period easy shifting averages.

He had spent years of painstaking analysis taking a look at shifting averages and worth patterns.

It could be value our time to listen to what he has to say.

This e book was printed a really very long time in the past, in 1998, when he needed to telephone his dealer to put commerce orders.

The examples within the e book are primarily every day OHLC charts on Futures.

OHLC (Open Excessive Low Shut) bars had been used earlier than candlestick bars turned fashionable.

On this article, we are going to select some patterns from current candlestick equities charts to show his ideas and to point out that his patterns nonetheless maintain as we speak.

The fundamental sample on the bullish aspect begins with the 18-period shifting common crossing above the 40-period shifting common.

This isn’t a easy shifting common crossover technique.

That is solely the beginning of the setup and definitely not the set off.

Right here, we see the SPX index 18-MA (inexperienced line) cross above the 40-MA (blue line) at level 1, as indicated under.

After the cross, we await the value to drop again down under the 18-MA again into the zone outlined by the 18-MA and the 40-MA (see level 2 within the graphic).

The set off to go lengthy is when the value comes up above the 18-MA out of the zone (see level 3).

As soon as triggered into the commerce, put a cease under the 40-MA.

Because the inventory strikes up, begin shifting the cease up as nicely.

The cease ought to be positioned between the 18-MA and the 40-MA strains.

On this instance, we see that the commerce received stopped at level 5 because of the in a single day hole down.

The commerce made about “1R”, which implies it made income equal to at least one instances the preliminary threat.

The technique just isn’t meant as a 100% mechanical system.

There are nuances that the dealer wants to look at to make a discretionary resolution as as to whether to take the commerce or not.

The standard of the system relies on the standard of the dealer’s discretionary selections.

The upper the win fee, the higher.

Nevertheless it doesn’t must be very excessive as a result of the common win dimension tends to be bigger than the common loss dimension.

With an preliminary cease positioned under the 40-MA, the dealer shortly is aware of when the commerce is unsuitable and exits with a small loss.

One nuance that the dealer wanted to evaluate was the space of the 18-MA from the 40-MA on the level of the set off.

If this distance is just too giant, the dealer ought to forgo the commerce as the chance will probably be too giant for the reason that cease must be past the 40-MA.

For this instance, we are going to have a look at the bearish crossover model.

Right here, we see that Coca-Cola (KO) had an 18-MA crossing under the 40-MA:

We await the value to come back into the zone, again above the 18-MA.

The promote set off is when the value exits the zone once more by dropping under the 18-MA (see level 2 above).

The cease would then be positioned above the 40-MA.

We see that on the level of the set off, the space between the value and the opposite aspect of the zone the place we positioned the cease may be very giant.

This ought to be sufficient for a dealer to justify not taking the commerce.

If they’d taken the commerce, they’d have been stopped when the value gapped up on earnings, inflicting fairly a major loss.

One more reason to not take the commerce is that the time from the crossover (level 1) to the set off (level 2) may be very lengthy – almost a month and a half has elapsed.

That is another excuse to not take the commerce.

By the point of the set off, the downtrend had already occurred, and the value had not dropped a lot additional.

A discretionary distinction {that a} dealer wants to contemplate is that if the value takes too lengthy to come back again contained in the 18-MA, the dealer ought to forgo the commerce as a result of entry is just too late into the pattern.

Right here, NVIDIA had the shifting common cross on Might 16, 2024.

However we didn’t get the purchase set off till Jun 25. NVDA had gone up for a month already.

It’s too late within the pattern to purchase. We’ve to let the commerce go.

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Scot emphasizes within the e book that the purchase set off (or promote set off) is simply when the primary time the sample occurs.

If the sample makes use of the identical crossover once more, the second time just isn’t a set off.

For instance:

Scot additionally talked about wanting on the larger timeframe to find out the pattern.

Don’t go in opposition to the pattern of the upper timeframe.

Here’s a every day chart of Microsoft (MSFT) the place there was a bearish setup after which triggered in September 2024:

Ought to the dealer take the quick commerce that was triggered?

No.

A dealer taking the commerce would have been stopped out when the value rallied up, breaking the down trendline and developing above the 40-MA.

To begin with, the time from the crossover to the promote set off is a bit lengthy.

However extra importantly, if the dealer had checked the weekly chart, he would have seen that the longer timeframe pattern is bullish and, due to this fact, shouldn’t be taking bearish trades.

The weekly chart is bullish, with an 18-MA above an upward-sloping 40-MA:

Now that we now have discovered what ought to occur after a shifting common crossover, we have to study what Scot calls the “system failure” sample.

That is when what ought to occur doesn’t occur.

Then, it might be time to do the other.

Check out Journey Leisure Co (TNL), the place at level 1, it had a bearish crossover:

At level 2, its worth got here into the zone and is meant to come back out under the 18-MA.

Nevertheless, it by no means did. As a substitute, on Jan 25, 2025, it went up above the 40-MA at the place the cease would have been.

This can be a promote failure sample.

Ought to we then do the other and purchase?

Let’s test the upper timeframe on the weekly chart on the candle for the week of Jan 21:

The chart is clearly in an uptrend.

So sure, we should always go lengthy on the every day chart on Jan 22.

If the dealer needed to play directionally with the bull name debit unfold:

Date: Jan 22, 2025

Value: TNL @ $53

Purchase one name Feb 21 TNL $50 name @ $4.15Sell one name Feb 21 TNL $55 name @ $1.07

Debit: -$308

The dealer would have seen a revenue of $127 about two weeks afterward Feb 7:

Or see a max revenue of $192 whether it is held to expiration.

The Delphic Phenomenon buying and selling methodology was developed by Scot Lowry 1 / 4 of a century in the past.

Nevertheless, we are able to discover current examples of inventory trades and choice trades that present that the system nonetheless has some validity.

The reader is inspired to see in the event that they discover the patterns to carry true by wanting via the historical past of many charts.

Like many techniques, it’s not so easy to say that when we study the foundations, we might be worthwhile straight away.

As a result of there are vital selections that the dealer must make particular to that exact commerce, it requires apply and seeing many examples of those patterns to succeed.

And, in fact, it helps to learn worth motion.

A few of these selections embrace:

is the crossover, and the set off occurred shut in time and worth.
is the set off within the path of the pattern of the upper timeframe
Is that this a system failure sample
When to lift the cease
When to exit the commerce with income.

We didn’t get an opportunity to speak in regards to the 4-period shifting common.

Nevertheless, Scot does discuss it in his e book.

We hope you loved this text on the Delphi phenomenon buying and selling system.

If in case you have any questions, ship an electronic mail or go away a remark under.

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Disclaimer: The data above is for academic functions solely and shouldn’t be handled as funding recommendation. The technique introduced wouldn’t be appropriate for traders who should not acquainted with trade traded choices. Any readers on this technique ought to do their very own analysis and search recommendation from a licensed monetary adviser.